Mian Nawaz Sharif in his thundering speech promised People at Mansehra that he will run Bullet train from Peshawar to Karachi. One must not take Pakistani politicians and their speeches during election rallies seriously but since Punjab Govt spent 30 Billion Rs for self projection Metro Bus project let’s make an effort to understand its economic viability for Pakistan.
State of Pakistan
Railways
Instead of straight away jumping
to Bullet train let’s analyze condition of Pakistan Railways. See following statistics
to have an idea of abysmal situation of railways:-
· Pakistan
railways had 8561 Route Kilometers in 1950s while same figure has come down to
7791 Km in 2012[1]
reduction of 9%.
· Pakistan
had 12,000 track kms in 1950 while in 2012 it is 11755 Kms while there has been
an increase in broad gauge track from 10478 Km to 11366 Kms.
· In
1985 there were 550 Diesel and 29 Electric locomotives which have come down to
494 and 16 respectively. While total no of locomotives has come down from 952
to 522.
· From
1985-90 there were 2447 Passenger carriages while same now stands at 1584.
· Freight
wagons owned in 1950 was 22835 and now it is down to 17545.
· No
of Passengers carried 78.9 Million from 1950-55, peaked to145 Million during
1975-80 and now it is 41.9 Million. While fare charged has almost doubled from
33.70 Paisa’s / Km from 2000 to 2005 while same stands at 69.70 Paisa / Km in
2011-12.
· Freight
wagon load was 806,919 from period 1950-55 and now 61,392 in 2011-12.
· Diesel
– Electricity ratio from 84.4% and 7.69% in 1975-80 has come down to 100%
diesel dependence as electric trains are nonexistent for the time being since
2010. At peak total 37,402 MWh electricity was consumed in 1985-90 period about
7000 MWh a year and 600 MWh a month for just 544 Km track.
· Total
earning from 94.4 Billion Rs in 1995-2000 has come down to 15.44 Billion Rs.
While operating cost / earnings ratio has come 85% in 2000-05 to whopping
203.59% in 2011-12. It means from profit making enterprise it has become a
costly white elephant spending twice as much as it earns. In 2011-12 earnings
were 15.44 Billion RS and 31.46 Billion Rs was expenditure.
Bullet Train:
Viable or Not
First of all folks a bullet train will work on
electricity. In a country with minimum short fall of 6000 MWs it is hard to
imagine it can be ever materialized. While following are major changes required
to be undertaken before the project can even start:-
· Dedicated
tracks would be required as already laid tracks cannot support speeds more than
125 km/h.
· High
Speed rail track gauge of 1435mm will be adopted.
· Continuous
welded rail is generally used to reduce track vibrations and misalignment.
Almost all high-speed lines are electrically driven via overhead cables, have in-cab signalling, and use advanced switches using very low
entry and frog angles.
· Constrictions,
such as at-grade crossings, where lines intersect other lines and/or roadways
are eliminated. For this reason, Japan and China typically build their
high-speed lines on elevated viaducts, allowing high-speed with safety and
lower cost.
· High-speed
lines also avoid sharp curves, which reduce the speed limit. Curve radius is
typically above 4.5 kilometers (2.8 mi), and for lines capable of
350 km/h (217 mph) running, typically at 7 to 9 kilometers (4.3 to
5.6 mi).
· The
lines may rest on traditional sleeper and ballast (such as French high-speed
lines and derived), or on concrete tiles (such as German and Chinese high-speed
lines).
· To
avoid any obstacles, trees are cut back in a large area away from the railway
line, and fences prevent animal or human walking across the tracks[2].
· Improve
coaches, which can support 160 km/h, with stainless steel bodies and
crash-worthy designs, incorporating passenger and crew protection, and
fire-retardant materials. Equip coaches with electro-pneumatic brake systems to
enhance safe operations at 160–180 km/h.
· Develop
locomotives with output of 9000 to 12000 hp for hauling of 24-26 coach
long passenger trains to 160–200 km/h[3]
Total
Cost of the Project
If Nawaz Sharif’s statement has to be
taken on face value then it will require about 1700 Km of track. India has carried
out feasibility study and it costs about 9.5 Million US $ / Km therefore it
will cost us 16.15 Billion US $ or while our national budget stands at 39.9 Billion US $ with a deficit of 13 Billion $. Also to be
economically viable its cost for passenger should be 0.11 US $ / Km and hence Islamabad to Karachi will cost
(1500 km) 16,500 Rs / person one side. It would be more expansive then Airline
ticket as in other countries.
Electricity
of about 20 KWh / Km per train is required. For 1500 Km for one train it will
require 30 MW. Imagine 2 trains going from Islamabad to Karachi and consuming
60 MWh almost same as power generation of Gas
Turbine Power Station, Shahdra (59 MW).
IS
IT WORTH
Pakistan has only 0.7 Hospital beds
/ 1000 person and ranked 171st in 191 nations[4]
slightly less than Sudan. If establishment of latest hospital is a yard stick
then it costs 110 Million US $ to construct a 400 bed hospital; equivalent to laying 12 Km of track for bullet
train.
While in education situation is
also very bleak, 6.3 Million children are out of primary schools least among 126
countries[5]. Spending only 1.8% of GDP on education and 55%
of girls have not been able to complete primary education.
The prevailing energy crisis in Pakistan is
taking away 2 percent (or Rs380 billion) of the economy per year, despite the
government has spent Rs1.1 trillion as subsidies on the sector in the last
four-year which accounts for 2.5 percent of the total volume of economy[6].
In cost of Project
Bullet train we can fully finance Diamer Bhasha Dam at our own (12.6 Billion US
$) with 4500 MW power generation capacity and can construct 160 hospitals with
400 beds. So decide yourself is it worth.
